Chinese coal prospects to 2010, IEAPER/11

Author(s): Martin Daniel

Ref: IEAPER/11
ISBN: 92-9029-238-5
Published Date: 01/06/1994
No. of Tables: 28
No. of Figures: 4
No. of Pages: 35

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Over the past sixteen years Chinese coal production has more than doubled - fuelling the country's spectacular economic growth. China is now the world's leading coal producer, and is dependent on coal for three-quarters of its total energy requirements. The report analyses coal prospects in China over the period to 2010. The study begins by assessing the likely impact of trends in population and economic growth, and of changes in fuel prices, on energy and electricity needs. The potential for fuels other than coal to meet these needs is analysed and a projection of future coal demand established. The report goes on to assess whether the projected coal demand can be met. Changes in the structure, pricing and cost of Chinese coal production are analysed. So too are infrastructure constraints on coal transport and utilisation. The potential for coal imports and exports, and the environmental implications of likely developments in coal production and use, are also covered. The report concludes that the projected coal demand could in theory be met. However, a significant part of the demand may need to be met by imports. Moreover, meeting the projected demand would require a formidable level of annual capital investment in coal production, transportation and utilisation facilities - approaching 10% of the country's gross national product in 1993. This may prove very difficult to achieve.

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